By Sonia Simone
There is one highly predictable aspect to social media.
Your best results will come from the least predictable part.
An interview with Seth Godin revealed all of the smart, sensible biz dev deals he cut to promote Squidoo, and how miserably they all failed. Smart deals with media companies and major magazines, with celebrities and major sites, pfffft.
What worked, massively, was individual people picking up a useful tool and doing something unpredictable with it, then talking with their friends about how cool the experience was.
Not unpredictable like a Fellini movie, but unpredictable like breastfeeding, banana bread recipes, and American Idol.
If you make something in the social media world that is highly useful to a bunch of folks, whether it’s a great content series or a fantastic new tool, you can guess you’ll do well, but you probably won’t be able to predict exactly how. That part isn’t up to you, it’s up to your community. Your part is to avoid getting in the way and to make yourself helpful at the right points.
The social media universe is an intensely chaotic system that’s highly susceptible to the butterfly effect. A butterfly flits its wings in North Texas and ten days later you get a hurricane in Singapore.
There’s some question about whether you can analyze social media at all. I know from experience that you can, but it calls for a special skill set.
Social media analysis calls for an exceptional ability to filter out irrelevant BS, an acute ability to sniff out patterns and undercurrents, and a thorough knowledge of butterfly ranching. The more butterflies you can get flittering, the better your odds of a hurricane down the line.
Photo courtesy of aussiegall on Flickr Creative Commons.
Sorry if you think I am too dumb to post this comment but honestly I don’t get what this post (and many others) are trying to say about social media.
Looks like it’s getting more complicated than it should be isn’t it?
Social Media is a “virtual” place where you meet characters. It’s the same as when you join “real world” communities, and for me it’s simple” If you can’t manage your character to be the best you can be in the “real world”, than you won’t be able to set a respectable profile in social media. It’s not a technical stuff, but it’s based on relationship. You have to really “meet” the people.
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Daniel
Hi Daniel! Thanks for coming by.
I agree that it’s basically about creating relationships and many of the same rules apply here as apply anywhere. But I believe there are group dynamics that are unique to online community. If you’re a business and you’re accustomed to consumer behavior from traditional marketing like advertising or direct mail, or if you’re a nonprofit and you think that an online community will behave in the same way as a real-world face-to-face event, you might be in for a rude awakening. The ability to tie really large groups together with true communication, and not just broadcast one-to-many messaging, is, IMO, new.
I would say this particular post was written mostly for folks who have worked with some relatively simple models of “customer behavior,” as a heads up that the kind of analysis called for is different when you start playing with this new way of connecting people together.
Sonia,
I get it perfectly,don’t lose this idea.
The buttrfly effect is part of chaos theory. Another analogy is the biblical allegory of Jesus of telling his disciples to cast their nets to the other side of the boat – et voila.
Greetings – very nice analysis! Also, don’t forget that, according to Seth, “It’s also about the stories that you tell…”
Hi Mark, thanks for dropping by!
Great post title on that link, by the way. 🙂 Great example of what a magnetic headline can do.
Hi Sonia,
Another good post.
I’d be careful not to take Seth’s account to far though. There is still value in planning, partnerships, etc. Sometimes plans work, and sometimes they don’t. However, just because social media is unpredictable doesn’t mean you should just sit in the back seat and wait for something to happen. Right?
Definitely, David–but I think it’s worth testing lots of small ideas rather than putting all of your resources into one “home run” strategy.
Play small ball, get some base hits, and keep moving forward. And sure, take a big swing every once in awhile, if you can do that without hampering your other efforts.
I couldn’t agree more. Glad to hear we’re on the same page. If you care, I posted about the “feeler” strategy not all that long ago.
http://postcardperfect.com/blog/?p=16
I just discovered this blog but how many useful tips inside.